Friday, 9 June 2017

New Brexit, Same As The Old Brexit

I wanted to do a really short post about how the election result has fundamentally changed the course of the Brexit bus and how life as we know it will never be the same due to the surprise outcome.  Here's a quick summary of my thoughts so far:
NOTHING HAS CHANGED IT IS LIKE GROUNDHOG DAY IS HAUNTING OUR LIVES IT JUST GOES ON AND ON WITH EXACTLY THE SAME LIES AND STUPIDITY THAT WE HAVE HAD TO ENDURE FOR THE PAST 12 MONTHS WITHOUT A BREAK IT IS EVEN THE SAME BRAZEN FOOLS THAT WILL BE IN CHARGE OF IT BECAUSE NOTHING HAS CHANGED AT ALL THE ENTIRE CHARADE OF THE ELECTION WAS ALL FOR NOTHING I NEED TO GET THIS ANGER OUT OF MY SYSTEM NOW OH I'M STArTiNG to fEel beTTer now cOunTto ten and relax oh that is better. OH GOD THERE THEY ARE AGAIN ON THE TELLYBOX SQUAWKING THEIR HALF-BAKED IDEAS LIKE THEY HAVE VALUE I CAN'T TAKE THIS ANY LONGER WHERE IS MY UKULELE IT IS CALMING AND HAS MORE TO SAY ABOUT BREXIT THAN MICHAEL GOVE.
Sorry you had to witness that outburst. I do feel better now but also a little ashamed that I let it all get to me.

Before I head off in search of a paracetamol and an emergency ukulele let's just peruse the facts of the situation for a quick second:
  1. Theresa May is still in place. 
  2. There are no real moves to depose her (yet).
  3. Fox, Hammond, Davis, Johnson are all still in place.
  4. Tory policy is still for the hardest possible Brexit.
  5. Labour and Conservative have policies on Brexit that lead to exactly the same conclusion.
  6. Nobody has properly considered the legislative void that follows the hardest possible Brexit. 
  7. The Brexit talks are about to start in 10 days time and the UK is just as unprepared as it was 12 months ago.
  8. Voters do not understand the decisions that are being made on their behalf because the UK's political leaders don't understand them themselves and refuse to engage with the problem.
  9. Alternatives to the UK's current path have willfully been ignored as though they don't exist.
  10. The election was the perfect time to do that but I suppose we'll have to have another now. 
Over and out,

Terry
 
PS Here is a pop song with semi-appropriate song title to help us all calm down and enjoy the weekend.



15 comments:

  1. How you (research &) write about this stuff & remain anywhere near sane is beyond me; reading about it in the likes of this blog nearly sends me over the edge. Your minor breakdown is excused.

    Hugh

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    1. This is just the first in a series of minor breakdowns. If you read about a crazy Scotsman in Zurich who has locked himself in a supermarket toilet as a political protest that will be me.

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  2. agree with your list of observations, sad to see so much "unionism" (may I say UK-onanism) voting mainly together with Brexit confirmation. Labour "won" the election but lost the bus to future. Btw lucid tories (if any) will pay with their blood and tears TMAY being dependant on the troglodytes of DUP . I am afraid that dependency will be paid to DUP with anti women , anti LBGT and pro superstitious measures.

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    1. The coalition with the DUP is not a good move, especially since one of the first goals of the Brexit talks is to secure a deal for the Northern Ireland border. I'm guessing this will last just long enough for it to be genuinely dangerous.


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  3. Your list is accurate.

    I mean that is incredible. UK is like Toytown. And she's like Noddy or something.

    It's a fantasy land.

    No one seriously thinks that a politician of such meagre talent will manage to keep it together for long. Certainly not one so roundly despised by her own people

    And to fight a campaign on the unpalatable connections of Corbyn to the IRA, and then team up with the DUP to save her sorry ass...
    Sheesh...

    I'm sure she's a satirical comedienne. We'll all wake up soon and she'll be gone back to the stand up circuit, and a real politician will be back as PM

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    1. Jonathan Powell, has just appeared on Sky begging the government NOT to go down the path of agreement with the DUP. He says that Westminster HAS to stay neutral in NI. They cannot be in an agreement with one of them and still be able to mediate in the current situation. John Major and Dave Cameron both stuck by that. Powell himself has been involved for ten years in NI.

      All other parties in Ireland were against Brexit. The DUP was for (being a party full of hate for anything that isn't British, white, heterosexual and protestant). But 55%+ of the population voted to remain. This is foolishness of gigantic proportions.

      Ruth Davidson appears to be falling out with May over this. according to a story in the Daily Telegraph.

      I don't know how to get the Sky video on here. I'll re-tweet on Twitter.

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    2. Just incredible stuff. It mainly shows that the Tory party is completely spineless and that parliamentary opposition to Brexit is yet to coalesce into an organised unit. Not good news. Better to sort this out now than in six months time.

      This is not a stable solution, despite the mantra of strength and stability. How long can it last?

      I just heard the Jonathan Powell interview on the radio. He doesn't hold back in his disgust and incredulity. Strange times.

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    3. I'm guessing this is the Daily Telegraph article you mentioned:

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/ruth-davidson-planning-scottish-tory-breakaway-challenges-theresa/

      That's all good but it is a bit cheeky to campaign on a set of manifestos and then reject them the day after being elected. It's almost as though they never agreed with any of it. Baffling.

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  4. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/entertainment-arts-40245460/davis-government-worked-up-no-deal-brexit-scenario

    Uh-oh.

    Also, for some strange reason, it appears to be filed away under "entertainment & arts". LOL

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    1. That is an incredible interview.

      Why does nobody realise that walking away from a deal only works if the result is the status quo? I've not seen one interviewer ever press Davis on that point.

      David Davis is certainly an "entertainer".

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  5. What do you make of this Terry?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/the-six-brexit-traps-that-will-defeat-theresa-may

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    1. I'm sure there is something in his complaints. The EU is tasked with solving problems that individual countries can't solve on their own. Sometimes the EU can't solve those problems either so they just kick the can down the road. The Greek debt crisis followed that pattern exactly. In fact, the Greek debt crisis ended up pulling in other parties like the IMF because the EU realised it was beyond its own abilities. Just kick the can down the road for as long as humanly possible until everyone forgets about it.

      I honestly don't know how the Greek debt crisis could have been solved any other way. The ECB is charged with stability in the Eurozone. It must do this in a way that acts in the interests of its shareholders, the state banks of the EU28. For example, it can only lend money authorised by its shareholders. The Germans simply refused to lend money to the Greeks through the ECB on the terms that the Greeks sought. The only solution possible was containment. What Varoufakis sees as deliberate obfuscation might more charitably have been viewed as pragmatism.

      I'm afraid that his view of the EU as undemocratic doesn't really work in this case because debt is an issue for courts and process. If the ECB had unilaterally cancelled the debt would that have appeared democratic to the Germans? I would argue that a decision like that would be tyrannical. Cancelling the debt might also have breached the narrow goals of the ECB because it would have led to market instability. If the Greek debt is cancelled then so would Italian debt and Spanish debt. That's why the markets reacted to strongly to the Greek crisis, even though the numbers were quite low. The truth is that each player had little wiggle-room to solve a complex problem but they had to be seen to be active. Maybe that explains some of it. Anyway, neither side covered themselves with glory.

      The EU, of course, was badly prepared for the crisis in the Eurozone. It simply didn't have the powers or procedures to solve its own problems, despite many advance warnings. I don't think Brexit is like that at all. Brexit is very different. It is a prescribed legal process with a defined timeline; the EU has granted clear legal powers to an appointed negotiating team; the process of ratification is clearly defined. The EU has also been eager to break up the problem into smaller sequential parts to ensure a solution is possible.

      There's one caveat that might lead the EU to prevaricate and obfuscate and dissemble. What if the UK turns out to be unable to make decisions? The EU will want to avoid the looming legislative void and are certainly more aware of the risks involved than the UK. What will they do if faced with a UK that simply drops out of all EU agreements?




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    2. Wow, thank you for your excellent analysis. You match, in detail, my (less deeply understood) view. It was brought to my attention by a friend who drew the conclusion from it that for the UK to get the best Brexit deal we need to present a list of demands/desires/wishes and walk away letting the EU realise they have to deal with us. My thoughts, heavily influenced by what I've learned from you, was that was way too simplistic because we (post-Brixit Britain) need the EU far more than they need us and they need to protect the EU no matter what. I suggested he spend some time reading your blog to get a better feel for the reality of the situation but I fear he, Remainer that he is, will still obtain his ideas from the MSM and they, as we know, are woeful in so many ways.

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  6. It's partly a question of relative strength but it's also a question of process. The EU has thousands of agreements across multiple governments in the EU, the EEA and with third parties. It legally can't act in a way that undermines any of that. A lot of the EU's red lines are a reflection of the legislation that underpins it. At least, that's my interpretation. The order of the talks, for example, is a consequence of the way that different types of agreements are ratified using different mechanisms.

    Another issue is that the UK has boxed itself in to a limited set of choices. In fact, Theresa May made her choices at the last party conference - leave the ECJ, sign trade deals, and reject FoM. It's not clear that the PM understood that meant the UK would leave the Customs Union and the Single Market and all EU initiatives. Only several months later did she start talk about leaving the SM, even though that had been obvious to everyone else for some months. Even the A50 White Paper didn't seem to understand that Customs Union membership was no longer an option (it talked of mixed "access" in vague ways). It's quite obvious to anyone paying attention that she really didn't understand what she was saying because the UK is committed to leaving Euratom, even though it doesn't cross any of her stated red lines. I think she gets most of it now but still hasn't grasped Euratom. The EU listened to this and I'm guessing wildly that it formulated its response on the basis of the hardest Brexit. Both sides now have irreconcilable red lines.

    As it stands there is almost nothing to negotiate, to be honest, because agreement cannot be reached without one side changing its position. The EU is the only side with legally binding policy documents laying out the powers and goals of its negotiating team, while the UK is still flapping about like an idiot being chased by a wasp. It hasn't even announced a negotiating team yet. I would guess that is in flux after the election. The UK hasn't even sorted out its own domestic affairs - there is no way the Great Repeal Bill will now be ready by March, 2019. That is the real weakness of the UK's position - its woeful lack of preparation for what to do now and what to do later.

    I've noticed more and more stories in MSM about the hellish complexity that awaits. I think your friend will be reading about it soon enough.

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    1. If some author of fiction wrote a plot that featured a government as inept as the UK's you'd dismiss the book as completely unbelievable & not worth reading.

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